The following comes from a discussion I had with someone on LinkedIn about bitcoin’s price behavior and my own bitcoin price prediction for 2025. At the time, selling pressure seemed like a big mystery, and it made no sense why the price wasn’t higher.
Of course, by the time this post was published, bitcoin had already crossed back above the $100,000 mark!
That shows how temporary these panics really are.
$300,000 Bitcoin in Late 2025 or Early 2026
I recently made a video discussing my 2025 price target for BTC/USD.
My personal price target of $300,000 USD was first published on BitcoinNews.com in early 2024.
That target is based on the math of previous cycles, not hopium. Bitcoin has always done a bare minimum of a 20x off the prior cycle low every time. In other words:
2022 low = $15k, x 20 = $300k.
There’s always a chance “this time will be different,” but it might also be just like the last 3 halvings.
A 3x in one year is nothing for bitcoin.
We saw a 3x from January 2021 to April 2021 alone.
But late 2025 and early 2026 will likely be a blow-off top. If history rhymes, then 2026 will see a dramatic decline and ensuing bear market.
What Will the Bitcoin Price Be In Q4 2026?
By Q4 2026, I would expect the price to fall back to approximately where it is right now in Q2 2025, ~$90k – $100k.
Historically, after a blow-off top, bitcoin has never fallen too far below the previous cycle high. 2022 was slight exception (low of $15k, previous 2017 high of $19k.)
If that were to continue, previous resistance at $72k (new ATH in March 2024) would likely become permanent support, with prices never falling below that level again.
But because there is so much big money capital in the asset class now, I suspect the bear market drawdowns will be either less pronounced or more short-lived. E.g, the typical 80% parabolic price collapse might be quickly followed by a 30% rally, or might only be a 50% correction in the first place.
In the past, there have also been 75% – 80% drawdowns from the peak as I mentioned, so $300k – 75% = $75k (in line with the floor of March 2024’s ATH).
Short answer: BTC could be a low as $72k in Q4 2026, but I expect it to be somewhat higher.
Who is Selling Bitcoin Right Now?
Of course, at the time of this publication, buyers have outnumbered sellers, as the BTC/USD price has risen above $103,000.
But just a few weeks ago, someone asked me the question, “I don’t understand. Who’s selling BTC right now?”.
I responded: I do. It’s a combination of retail and arbitrage traders.
About 70% of recent selling was newbie retail investors who bought BTC for the first time at a six-figure price or close to it. The price tanks 20%, they freak out and panic sell, triggering some stop loss orders along the way. I’ve seen it happen to people personally – they can’t think long-term or handle volatility.
At the same time, some more sophisticated traders are shorting the ETFs to hedge their long positions in the spot market, or simply arbitraging – buying/selling shares in a way that gains a tiny profit from moving money from spot to ETFs when prices shift. This creates temporary artificial distortions but also sets up a short squeeze later on, kind of like we witnessed in the past week.
Finally, a lot of the buying by institutions/corporations happens on OTC markets, so that doesn’t impact the price as directly or immediately, whereas ALL of the selling by retail happens on exchanges, which can tank the price quickly.
What the Future Holds
To recap, my Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 is $300,000.
This may wind up being a conservative estimate. But I can’t see a scenario where BTC/USD doesn’t reach at least this level. After watching this market for 12 years, I can’t fully predict the future, but most of my estimates have been fairly accurate so far.
Nothing in this article or on this website shall be considered investment advice. Invest at your own risk and do your own research.